Big G's January Transfer Window Review
Graeme Rayner, Feature Writer
Twitter: @b1g_daddy_g
Back at the start of December I cast my gaze forward to the January Transfer window and wrote a piece in which I made a few predictions about likely in-comings and out-goings. It’s only fair now to take a look-see, and assess both how well I did and how successful the window looks to have been for the club.
So, what were my main predictions? You can read for yourself here, but let me summarise:
Out
I predicted the following players were likely to leave:
Florent Hadergjonaj
Terence Kongolo
Steve Mounie
Herbert Bockhorn
Collin Quaner
In reality, the following players moved on:
Reece Brown - Peterborough (Loan, end of season)
Ryan Schofield - Livingston (Loan, end of season)
Rarmani Edmonds-Green - Swindon Town (Loan, end of season)
Terence Kongolo - Fulham (Loan, end of season)
Kian Harratt - Harrogate (Loan, 1 month from 17/1/20)
Adama Diakhaby - Nottingham Forest - (Loan, end of season)
Aaron Mooy - Brighton (Undisclosed, rumoured to be around £5m)
Florent Hadergjonaj - Kasımpaşa (Loan, end of season)
Isaac Mbenza - Amiens (Loan, end of season - awaiting EFL/FA ratification at the time of writing)
Aaron Rowe - Bromley (Loan to 29 February)
Josh Koroma - Rotherham United (Loan, end of season)
So, my success rate was 40%. In my defence, at the time I wrote my article, Mounie was showing none of the signs of the form that has seen him announced Player of the Month for January, and Bockhorn and Quaner were wishful thinking on my part.
On balance, I think the outgoings have reshaped the squad in a positive way – the rumoured “bad eggs” have all moved on and we have trimmed the fat (and the wage bill), plus players with potential have decent looking loan moves to aid their development. Most Town fans will shed no tears if Kongolo, Diakhaby, Hadergjonaj and Mbenza never wear the shirt again.
Personally, the only one of these that truly disappoints me is Kongolo, as there is one hell of a player in there waiting to emerge, and the rumours about his attitude and behaviour seem so at odds with his attitude on the pitch when he is at his best that this feels like a missed opportunity.
The other move here was the conversion of Aaron Mooy’s loan at Brighton to a permanent one. The fee may seem low, but in reality he could have left for nothing at the end of the season of he hadn’t signed an extension before moving south, and I’m reliably informed that when adding in loan fees and realistic add on fees we are likely to have recovered the fee we paid for him.
In
When I wrote my predictions for incoming players, I was certainly not doing so from an ITK (“In The Know” position) but opted to suggest some possibilities. I did predict the areas we would look to address. Below I will summarise each position with the names I suggested we might look at:
Centre-Back (Kourtney Hause and James Chester)
Left-Back (Philip Heise and Harry Toffolo)
Right-Back (Ezequiel Schelotto & Timothy Fosu-Mensah)
Right-Wing (Harry Anderson)
Striker (Isaac Success, Ivan Toney, Jamie Reid, Rudy Gestede, Tom Elliott, Sam Cosgrove)
So, who did we bring in in each position:
Centre-Back Richard Stearman (Sheffield United - Free) Not on my list but in a similar vein of thinking – at a recently promoted premier league club, not getting game time, decent experience of this level. His early appearances for the club have shown he looks likely to fit in well, although If I were Jon Gorenc Stankovic I’d feel a little miffed at losing my place.
Richard Stearman
Left-Back Harry Toffolo (Lincoln City - Undisclosed) The only one I called right. Looks set to be a fans’ favourite, a great bit of business.
Right-Back – no one signed, and the only area that truly worries me. I’d argue that Saturday’s result, and two of Fulham’s goals within it, show that this may have been a big risk. With Danny Simpson out, we opted not to play future prospect and specialist right back Dumeaco Duhaney , but instead played Juninho Bacuna out of positon there. Yes, he gives us much going forward but I’d argue a specialist right back have meant we were not 3-0 down after 30 minutes, with a mountain to climb.
Right-Wing - Chris Willock (Benfica - Loan, end of season) This last minute signing seems to have been one off a list, as it was rumoured that we were looking elsewhere and the name came from nowhere. The obligatory YouTube highlights reel suggests he’s capable of putting balls into the box that look tailor made from the rehabilitated and firing Steve Mounie, but this is tempered by the knowledge he spent the first half of the season on loan at WBA without making a first team appearance.
Striker – no one signed – in my defence (as I’ve said) Mounie is firing again and rumours did appear about Isaac Success late on in the window, so I suspect we may have moved if the right deal became available.
Unexpected bonuses?
Apart from the positions I suggested, we made three other signings:
Attacking midfield - Emile Smith Rowe (Arsenal - Loan, end of season) After being largely anonymous in the first half of his debut at home to Brentford, a 15 minute spell after half time showed what he can offer, with driving runs and dangerous balls into the box. He added to this with a good performance away to Hull in our last win, and another against Fulham, scoring one and making the other in a 3-2 defeat where the home keeper was man of the match by a country mile. I suspect he’ll play in the number 10 role and am excited by what he can offer.
Andy King
Central midfield - Andy King (Leicester City - Loan, end of season) King is a central midfielder in need of games, so far he has appeared as a sub for Town, with his arrival coinciding with a much needed upturn in form for Trevor Chalobah. It remains to be seen how much game time he’ll get but huis experience and character will no doubt be an asset either way. Ironically, perhaps, central midfield is the one area town look a little overloaded in, so he may need to “take That Chance” with both hands when it comes.
Goalkeeper - Jonas Lossl (Everton - Loan, end of Season) - This was one nobody could have foreseen. Christopher Schindler (for whom I regularly tell my son I’d leave his mother, he’s gorgeous) collided with Kamil Grabara in the Hull game, leaving the young keeper with a bleed on the brain, giving both him and the club a headache – suddenly we were down to one first team keeper, Joel Coleman. Now, Coleman may well be a safe pair of hands but has never threatened to become first choice since singing in 2016. With Ryan Schofield out on loan, a solution was needed. Rumours were flying around – Joe Hart was mentioned, as was Lee Grant (bizarrely at Man Utd). Also, rumours that a former Town favourite struggling to get game time might come back, but these were wrong. Well, partly. Much talk was of Alex Smithies “coming home”, but actually Jonas Lossl was announced late on deadline day. Suddenly all was right with the world.
Summary
When I started my article in December I said:
““When it comes to who may leave, this is the easy part. I will say one who I don’t think will go, unless it’s for silly money, and that’s King Karlan. I think we would only let him go for £20m plus, and am 80/20 confident that he’ll be with us til the end of the year””
I’m going to claim that in the “tick” column – especially as Phil Hodgkinson confirmed during a Q&A on Saturday that he had turned down a £15m bid that week. Keeping him is massive, and arguably as important as any singular signing.
All in all, I think this has been a positive window for Town. A few earners who were contributing little or nothing have moved on, at least until the summer, and some prospects get the chance to prove they are worthy of a place in the Cowley regime next season.
In terms of players signed, although there’s a really strong a whiff of short-termism, there is very little to criticise – we have not thrown good money after bad, and have brought in a decent mix of experience and raw talent, having clearly taken a very pragmatic approach to what is often a tricky window. Danny and Nicky Cowley have clearly identified players who they no longer wan, and most of these have moved on. They’ve similarly identified gaps in numbers and/or quality to fill, and have brought in sensible options.
When we look at the possible first XI, given the players that were “persona non grata” at the start of the window to the one we have now things look much better:
The pre-window choices were limited and the bench was made up of year 10 kids
After the window we have much more quality in depth available
Andy King, if he impresses (and that remains to be seen) is out of contract this summer. Could he be persuaded to stay?
Harry Toffolo is rumoured to have cost about £500k, and already looks worth 4 or 5 times that.
Richard Stearman has slotted in seamlessly and is very vocal – I’d be surprised if he’s not made captain should Schindler ever leave (which I hope never happens…)
Emile Smith Rowe is exciting and if this is a sign of our approach to loans next year, good times could be on their way back.
Jonas Lossl was a needs must signing, but by heck we could have done so much worse. This is a feel good move with little down side.
Chris Willock is an unknown but if he fulfils his potential, could be a superbly shrewd bit of business, especially if he does well and becomes available from Benfica permanently.
The only caveats here are that I do think we should have signed a right back, and we do still have to find permanent homes for Diakhaby, Mbenza, Hadergjonaj and Kongolo in the summer. This could prove challenging (especially based on the reactions of Forest fans to Diakhaby’s first contributions) As for my own performance, my balls are not made of crystal, so I’m moderately pleased with my predictions.
I’ll have another go in the summer and see if I improve.